THE UNFORESEEN COMPONENT OF RISK WHEN CONSIDERING THE NEED FOR A CRITICALITY ACCIDENT ALARM SYSTEM

摘要

This paper sets out a concept for estimating the size of the contribution of the unforeseen component of criticality accident risk to that of the totality of criticality risks for a process involving fissile materials. By performing this, and considering this estimate alongside those risks known and evaluated as part of the safety justification for the process, a more informed and justifiable basis to the arguments for installing, or not installing a CAAS may be made. This work is in development, further work to identify the detailed means of estimation will be made and presented in a future paper provided the concept as set out is considered reasonable.