Identifying the Risk of client behavior in E.P.C Hydro Electric Power Plant Projects A system dynamics approach

摘要

In the past, risk management has been utilized for traditional compliance and insurancemotivated management linked to business performance. EPC project risks are now shared and distributed between clients and contractors involved in the partnership. Today’s large Hydro Electric Power Plant projects are typically characterized by large investments, tight budgets and schedules, and unproven environments. The EPC method of project delivery can have substantial benefits for all involved, but it also involves tremendous risk and complexity. With higher risk exposures, global competition is driving clients and contractors increasingly looking at alternative ways to identify, mitigate and control risks in these uncertain times of global economy. The influence of client behavior on a project is complex, including schedule restrictions on milestones, high demand on progress reports, delays in approving documents, and changes to work scope throughout the life-cycle. These behaviors have great impacts on the risk of EPC projects which should be scrutinized attentively. System Dynamics provides an alternative view in which these major influences are considered and quantified explicitly. This approach dispenses with much of the detail required by the traditional tools, but enables modeling of the systemic effects which traditional tools cannot model. This article aims to propose a holistic system dynamics model for understanding and identification of client behavior risks in EPC projects.