DURABLE SOLUTIONS AND POTENTIAL PROTRACTION: THE SYRIAN REFUGEE CASE

摘要

This paper presents a model of refugee movement at the nation-state level and how it captures the protraction of forced migration of refugees. The model provides a high-level abstraction based on the United Nations' proposed durable solutions to refugee crises: repatriation to home country, integration to host country, or resettlement to another country. Dynamics were captured from an existing protracted situation of a Congolese refugee camp in Rwanda. We apply the model to the case of Syrian refugees in Turkey to provide a baseline and preliminary validation. The goal of the study is to construct simulation artifacts that facilitate the discussion about refugees and the identification of challenges of implementing durable solutions. Further, the study provides the basis to explore potential new solutions that theoretically may overcome current limitations of existing solutions to prolonged status as a refugee.