The Effect Assessment for Fast Reactor Fuel Cycle Deployment

摘要

After the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station accident, the future role and perspectives of the nuclear energy and nuclear fuel cycle is being called into question in Japan. Regarding fast reactor (FR) and related fuel cycle system, the significance of the Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RDD&D) of them is also being argued. In this paper the socio-economic effect of the FR cycle deployment was assessed by a combination system of two energy economy models, which are a recursive dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model based on GTAP-E, i.e. an energy environmental version of the "Global Trade and Analysis Project (GTAP)" model, and a dynamic optimization type energy system model called "Dynamic New Earth 21 (DNE21)" model to clarify the significance of the RDD&D. Some energy systems, mainly renewable energy likes land/offshore wind, residential/mega solar and battery for power system stabilization as well as innovative nuclear systems under development (i.e. high temperature gas-cooled reactor systems, and fusion reactor) were added newly to the latest version of energy economic model for this assessment. Besides that, it is possible to treat mass balance more precisely in comparison to the previous version. Future population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) base growth rate, energy demand/consumption amount, and carbon footprint were important data to describe future global economic system with the recursive dynamic GTAP-E model. Moreover, potentials to recover resources, innovative technologies, etc. as well as capital costs for power sources, and other energy characteristics were considered to optimize energy supply profiles from the viewpoint of long-term energy system cost minimization through the DNE21 model. The results showed FRs with high economic potential are deployed on a massive scale in Asia and other countries. In addition to that, the combined analyses of both energy economic models show the promising economic effect by the plentiful inexpensive electricity supply from FRs. In particular, the GDP growth addition in Japan compensates expected RDD&D costs after the several decades from FR deployment. Besides calculating GDP after the commercial plants deployment, the socio-economic effects from RDD&D activities were also estimated. The RDD&D of FR is still cost-effective even under the present situation as long as nuclear energy is used continuously.