A Regional Snow Index-Analysing and Mapping Natural Snowfall Probabilities and Technical Snow Production Possibilities from Past to Future

摘要

The increase of the near surface air temperature within the last decades clearly indicates a climate change in the European Alps. Both the snow availability as well as the snow pattern changed causing the snow line to rise up to higher altitudes. This put stress on the popular skiing areas in the Alps, which were forced to produce large amounts of artificial snow in order to provide a thorough snow cover for tourists. However, the production of artificial snow is also limited in the changing climate, since higher temperatures also raise the energy costs required for the production of artificial snow. In this analysis we used the previously measured solid/liquid precipitation characteristics based on temperature datasets, obtained from 69 meteorological stations at different altitudes, in order to develop a probability relationship of precipitation and snowfall, based on the time series from 1981-2011. Additionally we used 25×25km resolution Danish Meteorological Institute climate datasets from 1991-2000 and 2021-2030 as a Network Common Data Form input variable to identify snow availability at different altitudes and days. We used ArcGIS to downscale these characteristics to LiDAR based digital elevation models in order to predict regional, past and future daily snow availability at certain altitudes. The forecasts predict a further receding snow line and thus fewer areas with natural snow cover. Under the present technical standards, the artificial snow production will be more and more limited in future, so that stakeholders, policy makers, and industry related planners can use these indications as a basis to define adaptation strategies against climate change impacts.