NITROGEN OUTLOOK(PPT)

摘要

1. U.S. fertilizer use will be up in FY 2011, with N approaching 13 M Ms tons. 2. All fertilizer prices are up, significantly correlated to crop prices. Major suppliers appear to be sticking with a strategy of supplying/taking orders for one or two months only at a given price, seems more prevalent than in past marketing programs. 3. So, in a scenario where crop prices (especially corn) keep ramping up, suppliers will have not "oversold" at "current" prices (below opportunity). Or, if crop prices (corn) seriously retreat for some reason, suppliers have the option to drop prices so as to continue to move product. Lessons were actually learned in 2007, 08, 09. 4. With corn harvest occurring relatively early, demand for P, K, and ammonia for Fall application is/has been pretty strong. Re P&K, though, the uncertainty becomes: if a lot 5. goes down now, to what degree will that impinge on Spring demand? 6. In absolute terms, we see no basic, inherent shortage of N, P & K supply capability for both the domestic and international market. The principle issues are, as always, supply at what price, and is it/will it be in the right place at the right time?