Study on Real Time Optimal Regulation of Agricultural WaterResources in the Yellow River Irrigation Area

摘要

With the background of water resources crisis, according to the characteristics of agricultural water resources in Yellow River irrigation area and the real time dispatch principle, a layered coupling model for real time optimal dispatch of agricultural water resources is established. The model consists of three modules : mid and long term ( years ) optimal dispatch module , short term ( growing stage ) optimal module and feedback information of real time error correction system. By applying this model the forward rolling dispatch including " the forecasting, decision making, implementation, error correction, further forecasting, further decision making, further implementation, further error correction" is realized. The principal results are as following: according to the principle of real time dispatch and the characteristics of agricultural water resources configuration, a layered coupling model for real time optimal dispatch of agricultural water resources is established. The model embodies the connotation of facing time to reach the optimal real time dispatch under the constraint condition of mid and long optimal. Analysis method of fuzzy clustering R/S for forecasting typical year, of which the forecasting theory and method are simple, has a better application value. The method of modified grey interval — development belt model to forecast the precipitation improves the accuracy of prediction. The real time correction model based on the theory of fuzzy recognition technology realized real time correction of forecasting error and dispatch result, which can increase the reliability and practicability of the model.