China's steel output forecast in the next five years

摘要

This paper analyzed and compared the major methods to predict future China's steel demand, and then chose the Verhulst model life curve forecast. Based on the actual consumption of steel from 1988 to 2009, this paper predicted China's apparent consumption of steel will reach the peak of 780 million tons in 2015, even if it took all the factors into account of the repeated processing consumption of crude steel and the direct and indirect exports of steel. It is of great significance to analyze and forecast China's future steel demand in order to establish resources security. There are many factors to influence China's steel apparent consumption, and they also exist the inherent complexity, such as annual steel consumption, gross domestic product (GDP), various secondary industrial structures, urban and rural population structure, various industrial output value, social saving amount of steel, per capital consumption, total investment scale of fixed assets and investment scales of various secondary industries of fixed assets etc.