The East Mediterranean is one of the bifurcation Zone of World Stability. The location near the arc of geopolitical conflicts is the main basis for challenges to safety in this region. Environmental terrorism provoked by these conflicts is the main threat as the intensity of tanker traffic and the infrastructure of oil and gas pipelines in this region are very high. So any terrorist act may lead to an ecological catastrophe with unpredictable consequences. How may prevention best be accomplished? How can the effects of terrorist acts on marine ecosystems be minimized? How can the marine environment and water resources of the East Mediterranean be protected from great anthropogenic loads connected with the current stage of Globalization? These are the key questions of strategic management. Their solution is impossible without contemporary mathematical methods. This paper illustrates an application of the mathematical modeling, theory of catastrophes and risk analysis to assess and manage the levels of threats. The results of a mathematical investigation of risk dynamics and its dependence on the intensity of fuel flows in the East Mediterranean are presented.
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