Analysis of developments in new EU member states based on the dairy quota situation

摘要

The world dairy situation was recently (2007) quite positive in comparison to the period 2002-2006. Demand for dairy products is growing, especially because of the rapidly increasing demand in Asian countries. In 2007 and early part of 2008, a substantial increase in milk prices was seen in the EU, as well as an increase in some cost factors (feed and energy). Nevertheless, 20 out of the 25 EU countries did not reach or just reached their national milk quota in year 2006/2007. The overall milk production volume in the EU is stable and export is decreasing. On the contrary, New Zealand, South America and USA are strengthening their export position on the world market. This trend has caused a discussion in EU about the future of the quota system after2014; keep this production restricting instrument or choose an open market situation. The situation in some EU countries will be described in detail. As case studies, the situation in countries of Eastern Europe with relatively small herds, i.e. Poland,Slovenia and Lithuania are examined. Regionalisation of milk production is compared against the quota system in use: a regional system versus a national system. The structural developments in the various regions in these countries are also compared. Thedecoupling of EU subsidies from production has made the choice of strategy more an economical farm management decision than before. The dairy sector in Europe is becoming a business in a risky market environment as was experienced by the pig, poultry, vegetable, and flower sectors for many years. Because of fluctuating milk prices in recent years and uncertainty about quota system, prices of quota have started to fluctuate. It will be a huge challenge for the sector to cope with this market situation in a sustainable way. Robustness of the farm becomes a factor of more importance.