(00729)Simulating Nutrient Loads in an Intensively Cultivated Mediterranean Watershed under Current and Projected Climate Conditions

摘要

On the global scale, agriculture constitutes the most significant non-point pollution source for surface water bodies, especially in terms of nitrogen and phosphorus. Located in northeastern Greece, Vistonis basin, in which agricultural activities are widely developed, constitutes the area that discharges into Vistonis estuarine system, which is very significant both from the environmental and economic perspective. SWAT model was used in order to quantify discharge, nitrogen and phosphorus loads for the period 2003-2014, after calibration and validation. Simulation results indicated significant variation in nutrient loads, while their contribution on a massive fish kill event that took place on summer 2014 was found to be potentially significant. Nutrient loads variation were further investigated using projected, bias-corrected climate data from 3 Regional Climate Models (RCMs)for the periods 2021-2040 and 2061-2080. The results demonstrated decreasing trend in nutrient loads due to decrease in river discharge driven by precipitation decrease.