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Monotone Graphical Multivariate Markov Chains

机译:单调图形多功能马尔可夫链

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In this paper, we show that a deeper insight into the relations among marginal processes of a multivariate Markov chain can be gained by testing hypotheses of Granger non-causality, contemporaneous independence and monotone dependence coherent with a stochastic ordering. The tested hypotheses associated to a multi edge graph are proven to be equivalent to equality and inequality constraints on interactions of a multivariate logistic model parameterizing the transition probabilities. As the null hypothesis is specified by inequality constraints, the likelihood ratio statistic has chi-bar-square asymptotic distribution whose tail probabilities can be computed by simulation. The introduced hypotheses are tested on real categorical time series.
机译:在本文中,我们表明,通过用随机排序的手机测试,可以通过测试Granger非因果关系,同期独立和单调依赖性相干的假设来获得对多变量马尔可夫链的边际过程之间的关系的深度洞察。经证明与多边缘图相关联的测试假设相当于与参数参数化转换概率的多变量逻辑模型的交互的平等和不等式约束。随着不平等约束指定的零假设,似然比统计数据具有Chi-Bar方形的渐近分布,其尾随概率可以通过模拟来计算。引入的假设在真实的基本时间序列上进行了测试。

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