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A RISK SIMULATION MODEL FOR SALMONELLA DYNAMICS IN THE DANISH PORK PRODUCTION CHAIN MODEL VALIDATION RESULTS

机译:丹麦猪肉生产链模型验证结果的沙门氏菌动力学风险仿真模型

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摘要

Despite an intensive, integrated Salmonella control program, the surveillance results from fresh pork in Denmark still show no significant drop beyond the initial reduction from 2% to 1%. In order to decrease the prevalence further, continuing optimisation of the current intervention strategies are required. However, the optimal combination of interventions is almost impossible to identify under experimental or field-study conditions. Therefore, a simulation model was developed to explore the effectof intervention strategies on the overall risk of contamination in Danish pork (1). The objective of this presentation is to report first simulation results and data on the validity of this model.
机译:尽管有密集的综合性沙门氏菌控制计划,但丹麦新鲜猪肉的监测结果仍然显示出超过2%至1%的初始减少的显着下降。为了进一步降低流行,需要持续优化当前干预策略。然而,在实验或现场研究条件下,干预措施的最佳组合几乎是不可能的。因此,开发了一种模拟模型,探讨了丹麦猪肉(1)中污染整体风险的干预策略。此演示文稿的目的是报告第一模拟结果和数据的有效性。

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