A DAMAGE SCENARIO FOR THE CITY OF MESSINA, ITALY, USING DISPLACEMENT-BASED LOSS ASSESSMENTZhang wei1,zhang huan2,zhang lei2,zhang yang3,zhang xiang4,

摘要

An earthquake damage scenario for the city of Messina, Italy, has been carried out with the aim of forecasting the distribution of different levels of structural damage within the city. These results can be of use to the Civil Protection Department and other services for disaster planning management. Field surveys were carried out in order to calibrate the model to the building stock characteristics of Messina. On the basis of these surveys,different structural typologies, which group buildings with similar features, were characterized. The probability of exceeding a given damage state for each group of buildings (which included both reinforced concrete and masonry construction), was computed through a recently developed probabilistic displacement-based vulnerability procedure. This study has highlighted the high seismic risk of the city of Messina, caused by both its high level of hazard as well as the significant vulnerability of its building stock. Work currently underway now aims at the identification of the effects that debris stemming from the collapse of the buildings could have on the road network, with a view to assess if, after a seismic event, rescue and emergency teams would be in a position to access the most damaged areas of the city and then reach the hospitals and other emergency support facilities.