Ice load uncertainties-progress in their resolution

摘要

It is well known that ice load predictions are subject to uncertainties. In 1996, a study was undertaken to examine how international experts differed in their ice load predictions, to assess why these differences occurred and to develop a process to help reach consensus on ice loads. The study involved 14 international groups and looked at ice load scenarios involving level and ridged first year ice, multi year ice and driving forces. As expected, the study highlighted significant differences in ice loads as estimated by world-wide experts and organizations. (For example, a factor of 7 between lowest and highest was typical). This paper describes the results of the study, including why differences occurred, areas of consensus reached, remaining issues and recommendations.