Increasing User Confidence in System Dynamics Models Through Use of an Established Set of Logic Rules to Enhance Forrester and Senge’s Validation Tests.

摘要

System dynamics modelling is an approach to policy analysis and design that is founded upon the development of causal loop influence diagrams and dynamic simulation models. Forrester and Senge (1980) discuss the need for building confidence in system dynamics models via use of a set of validation tests. Forrester and Senge claim that the validation process should extend to include persons not directly involved with constructing the model. They also state that unless the modeller's confidence in a model can be transferred, the potential of a model to enhance understanding and lead to more effective policies will not be realised. This objective can be achieved by using a set of logic rules, normally employed to validate the "tree" structures used within the Theory of Constraints "Thinking Processes". The logic rules, known as the Categories of Legitimate Reservation (CLR), can be used to validate system dynamics models, providing an enhancement to the use of the validation tests promoted by Forrester and Senge. The use of the CLR within the validation process is a means of achieving the goal of transferring confidence in the model, from model builders to the model users. Such involvement aid in gaining user "buy-in" to the system dynamics model as a source of information for policy and strategy formulation.