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Excess monetary liquidity and asset prices in China: An empirical investigation

机译:中国货币流动性和资产价格过高的实证研究

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This article examines the long run relationship between M2-to-GDP ratio, the indictor of excess liquidity, and asset prices for China through cointegration estimation procedure. It also implements the Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) to explore simultaneously the short- and long-run causation in the modeling process. Results from the cointegration tests reveal that excess liquidity, asset prices, and the growth rate of household deposit share long run equilibrium relationship, while the results from the VECM indicate the absence of short run causality between excess liquidity and asset prices, but in the long run asset price and the growth rate of household deposit have casual influence on excess liquidity. In addition, the study finds that there is unidirectional causality from the growth rate of household deposit to the stock price in the short run but not vice versa.
机译:本文通过协整估计程序研究了M2与GDP的比率,流动性过剩的指标与中国资产价格之间的长期关系。它还实现了矢量错误校正模型(VECM),以同时探索建模过程中的短期和长期因果关系。协整检验的结果表明,流动性过剩,资产价格和家庭存款增长率之间存在长期均衡关系,而VECM的结果表明,流动性过剩与资产价格之间没有短期因果关系,但长期来看资产价格和居民存款增长率对流动性过剩有偶然的影响。此外,研究发现,从短期来看,从家庭存款的增长率到股票价格存在单向因果关系,反之则不然。

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