The forecast of development prospects of China's cross-border E-commerce based on grey system theory

摘要

According to the status quo that China's cross-border e-commerce is expanding rapidly, we selected the total imports and exports of China's cross-border e-commerce from 2008 to 2015 with a view to make some predictions. Firstly, using Grey System Theory, we partly establish GM(1,1) model and DGM(1,1) model to forecast and analyze the next five years' total imports and exports of China's cross-border e-commerce. Secondly, we compare the two types of models with the actual values and calculate the residual difference. Finally, we choose the one whose residual difference is smaller as the better model which could lead to more valid and precise prediction results in order to deepen people's understanding about the current situation and development prospects of China's cross-border e-commerce.