How will buildings' energy demand look in 2100? Quantifying future energy service demand from buildings

摘要

The demand for energy in buildings shows strong heterogeneities for different states of economic and technical development, as well as for different climate zones and life styles. In developed countries, final energy is used primarily for heating, while cooking plays the leading role in the developing countries. Further, natural gas and electricity fuel advanced economies when biomass prevails in other regions. These differences result from manifold factors - income levels, climate, behaviour, etc. -, for which the future development across the 21~(st) century is highly uncertain. This uncertainty, in turn, diffuses to the future evolution of buildings energy demand. To investigate plausible futures for buildings energy demand until 2100, this paper develops an energy demand model for buildings (EDGE) and applies it in an analytical scenario framework. EDGE projects energy demand for five energy services -lighting and appliances, space heating, space cooling, cooking, and water heating - eleven regions covering the world and seven fuel types. The long-term uncertainty is addressed with a comprehensive scenario framework developed over the last years in the integrated assessment community (O'Neill et al., 2014). The so-called shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) framework bundles qualitative and quantitative assumptions about key factors for buildings energy demand - e.g. income levels, technology development, environmental awareness - to span a wide set of likely future societies. These differentiated socio-economic developments provide crucial assumptions for energy demand. The analysis identifies the future key energy services for the aggregated buildings energy demand across two SSP scenarios. Results show the transformation of the buildings energy landscape driven by the rise in the demand for appliances, light and space cooling, and they show a strong electrification of the sector.