Monthly Peak-load Demand Forecasting for Sulaimany Governorate Using SARIMA

摘要

This paper presents a monthly peak-load demand forecasting for Sulaimany Governorate (located in northern Iraq) for the year 2006, using the most widely used traditional method, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). We have found that adequate SARIMA model is (1,1,0)(0,2,1)12, the performance of the model is tested on the actual historical monthly demand of the Governorate for the year 2005, The results obtained shows a very good estimation of the load. That is, the mean absolute percentage error MAPE is 1.235.