Investigating the effect of overtriage on hospital arrival times of critically injured casualties during a major incident using agent-based simulation

摘要

This paper uses agent-based simulation to simulate the prehospital response to a hypothetical major incident in the UK. The rate of overtriage by the operational-level secondary triage officer is varied, and its effect on the latest arrival time of a critically injured casualty to hospital is modelled as a function of the number of ambulances involved in the response. Modelling such relationships could aid strategic-level planning for emergencies, by providing insight into how to compensate for the effect of overtriage.