ASSESSMENT OF UNCERTAINTY-BASED SCREENING VOLUMES FOR NASA ROBOTIC LEO AND GEO CONJUNCTION RISK ASSESSMENT

摘要

Conjunction Assessment operations require screening assets against the spaceobject catalog by placing a pre-determined spatial volume around each assetand predicting when another object will violate that volume. The selection ofthe screening volume used for each spacecraft is a trade-off between observingall conjunction events that may pose a potential risk to the primary spacecraftand the ability to analyze those predicted events. If the screening volumes arelarger, then more conjunctions can be observed and therefore the probability ofa missed detection of a high risk conjunction event is small; however, theamount of data which needs to be analyzed increases. This paper characterizesthe sensitivity of screening volume size to capturing typical orbit uncertaintiesand the expected number of conjunction events observed. These sensitivitiesare quantified in the form of a trade space that allows for selection of appropriatescreening volumes to fit the desired concept of operations, system limitations,and tolerable analyst workloads. This analysis will specifically highlightthe screening volume determination and selection process for use in the NASAConjunction Assessment Risk Analysis process but will also provide a generalframework for other Owner / Operators faced with similar decisions.