A Study of Tourism Demand Modeling and Forecasting Based on the Method of Information Dissemination Mechanism

摘要

This paper aims to build a tourism demand-forecasting model that based on the information dissemination mechanism.This study firstly reviewed the methods of tourism demand forecasting and modeling and segments them into different clusters.Then discussed the relationship between tourism demand and information dissemination mechanism.Then build a forecasting model to forecast the tourism demand based on the information dissemination mechanism.This paper use the sample of China's inbound tourist make a comparison of accuracy to an econometric linear regression model.Finally find that the forecasting model based on the information dissemination mechanism performances better than the traditional linear regression model.