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Bayesian estimation with imprecise likelihoods in the framework of random set theory

机译:随机集理论框架下具有不精确可能性的贝叶斯估计

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The problem is Bayesian estimation in the circumstances where the the likelihood functions are only partially known. The measurement model in this case is affected by two sources of uncertainty: the stochastic uncertainty and imprecision. Following the framework of random set theory, the paper presents the optimal Bayesian estimator for this problem. The resulting Bayes estimator in general has no analytic closed form solution, but can be approximated, for example, using the Monte Carlo method. The proposed Bayesian estimator is illustrated by a source localisation example, where imprecision was due to the partial knowledge of sensor locations and propagation loss factors. It has been verified by Monte Carlo simulations that the support of an accurate approximation of the posterior PDF is guaranteed to contain the true value of the parameter vector.
机译:问题是在似然函数仅部分已知的情况下的贝叶斯估计。在这种情况下,测量模型受到两个不确定性因素的影响:随机不确定性和不精确性。遵循随机集理论的框架,本文提出了针对该问题的最佳贝叶斯估计量。所得的贝叶斯估计器通常没有解析的闭合形式解,但是可以使用例如蒙特卡洛方法进行近似。所提出的贝叶斯估计器通过源定位示例进行说明,其中不精确性是由于对传感器位置和传播损耗因子的部分了解而引起的。蒙特卡洛模拟已经证明,后PDF的精确逼近的支持可以保证包含参数矢量的真实值。

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