A Novel Approach on Project Performance Monitoring and Overrun Probability Measurement Using Statistical Process Control Techniques

摘要

The earned value management (EVM) is a tool commonly used to monitor both cost and schedule performance, based on the current status of a project. However, EVM does not consider the variation rate of project performance during project execution phase, which may oscillate, causing unexpected time and cost overruns or even project failure at the end. In this research, a methodology for monitoring project time and cost adverse variation rate, by the use of statistical process control (SPC), is introduced. This methodology improves the previous investigations in this field by considering overall required conditions and circumstances. Process capability indices of SPC, as a very powerful tool for analyzing variability of a process in comparison with its limitations, have the potential to be used as a risk management tool for projects. A novel model is also developed to predict project time and cost overruns probability using process capability indices of SPC. This will enable the project manager to determine the project failure probability, in terms of time and cost overruns, and to take corrective actions in order to avoid such failure in advance.