A Study on the Measurement Model of China's Forest Carbon Sinks Accounting

摘要

In order to better carry out the research of forest carbon sinks and serve the forest management, as well as to promote the economic development of carbon sinks, this paper has established the regression model of forest carbon sinks accounting, using forest stock conversion method, and has analyzed the characteristics of this model based on the collected data of forest stock, forest mortality and forest harvesting of year 1990 to 2007 in China, under the theory of economic cybernetics. The results show that the regression goodness of fit R2=0.998 for forest biological carbon sinks C(k+1) and C(k) in the model, the adjusted R2=0.997, the F-value is 6581.48, and its P-value of Sig. = 0.00, indicating that the model has statistical significance. Furthermore, this paper calculated the optimal price of forest carbon sinks in China as $10.11-15.17/tC, using the minimum value method of economic cybernetics based on the accounting model mentioned above. The paper also calculated the limit of forest harvesting as 426 million m3 per year to keep consumption of carbon reserves minimum in the economic development of China, a result demanding a better management of forest resources. Finally, the paper discussed on a number of problems in carbon sinks accounting, and suggested that the value of carbon sinks should use the shadow prices to estimate, i.e. to take into account all the impacts on carbon sinks accounting from the factors of social as well as economic development, in order to promote the sustainable development of carbon markets in China.