Prediction based on Markov chains for ladderlike rural labor transfer in Western China

摘要

In order to analysis and predict rural labor transfer quantitatively, a homogeneous Markov chain model of discrete parameters is proposed in this paper to describe the 三 situation of ladderlike labor transfer in western china. We consider the labor as the transfer variables and five terrain shifts the labor as variable states to build the model after carefully describe the situation of transfer. First order condition is considered to estimate transition probability matrix and estimate the parameters through Least Square method. After that, with the application of stationary distribution theory, we predict the situation of labor transfer in short term and long term. We conclude by numerical experiment that the transfer of labor in countryside is not sufficient and the current process of urbanization should be accelerated. The urban and rural dualization cannot be eliminated in current economic and policy attraction level. These quantitative results are acknowledged as essential to stimulate the local government making the situation clear and doing further work to promote the transfer.