The Study of Trajectories of the Development of State Capacity Using Ordinal-Invariant Pattern Clustering and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis

摘要

This work is devoted to the methodology for identifying structurally close objects of the type "country_year" based on a system of indicators characterizing the state capacity 1996-2015. A comparison of clustering methods (including hierarchical clustering) with methods of analyzing patterns based on a pairwise comparison of indicators, ordinal-fixed and ordinal-invariant pattern clustering, is proposed. The possibility of sharing the methods of clustering and pattern analysis to obtain interpretable results from the point of view of political science is demonstrated. Groups of countries with similar development paths by reference years on the basis of a dynamic analysis of patterns are identified. The dynamic change in state capacity (from the point of view of the selected indicator system) of 166 countries of the world is determined.