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A comparison between two different incidence indicators of gastrointestinal illnesses in a Swedish drinking water study

机译:瑞典饮用水研究中两种不同的胃肠道疾病发病率指标之间的比较

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Background: We have earlier studied how precipitation effect quality parameters in a fresh water supply for citizens in Gothenburg, Sweden. We concluded that the quantity of preceding rainfall are a superior predictor to concentrations of indicator bacteria's at the river water intake to their drinking water utility. Moreover, we have studied associations between rainfall and nurse advice calls from households that are distributed drinking water produced from this water utility. We identified that heavy rainfall was associated with an increase in daily number of phone calls concerning gastrointestinal illnesses (GI calls) 4-6 days later. We also observed that consecutive days of wet weather increased daily number of GI calls. Aim: Evaluate relations between GI visits to primary health care centers and nurse advice calls in entire, and subparts of, Gothenburg. This is of interests since we are studying causality of disease that normally doesn't need prescribed medicine or a doctor's advice, and this study will enlighten the similarities and differences of these types of health data. Method: We adjusted for seasonality and time trend, day of week and holidays in both GI health indicators separately with use of GAM models. We calculated cross correlations of lags -15:15 of the two model residual series to compare short-term associations. Results: No clear short-term associations were found between visits to primary care centers and nurse advice calls concerning gastrointestinal health (n days=758). Different seasonality patterns were observed with increasing GI visits in late summer compared to GI calls. GI calls have more distinct winter peaks than GI visits. Conclusions: The two different GI incidence data seems to be independent in short-term variations and we suspect that they represent different types of GI illnesses. Persons with virus-like GI symptoms are usually not recommended to visit a health care centers, why nurse advice calls may be a better outcome to study than visits.
机译:背景:我们之前已经研究了瑞典哥德堡的居民在淡水供应中降水影响的质量参数如何。我们得出的结论是,相对于饮用水企业而言,前降雨的数量是河流取水口指示细菌浓度的更好预测指标。此外,我们还研究了降雨与家庭用户的电话咨询之间的关联,这些家庭分配了从该自来水公司生产的饮用水。我们确定,大雨与4-6天后与胃肠疾病有关的每日电话(GI呼叫)数量增加有关。我们还观察到,连续几天的阴雨天气增加了每天的胃肠道检查次数。目的:评估哥德堡整个及部分地区的胃肠道就诊访问初级卫生保健中心与护士咨询电话之间的关系。这很有趣,因为我们正在研究通常不需要处方药或医生的建议的疾病因果关系,而这项研究将启发这些类型的健康数据的异同。方法:我们分别使用GAM模型对两个GI健康指标中的季节性和时间趋势,星期几和节假日进行了调整。我们计算了两个模型残差序列的滞后-15:15的互相关,以比较短期关联。结果:在初级保健中心就诊与有关胃肠道健康的护士咨询电话之间未发现明显的短期关联(n天= 758)。与地理标志召集相比,夏末的地理标志探访次数有所增加,观察到了不同的季节性模式。与地理标志访问相比,地理标志呼叫具有更明显的冬季高峰。结论:两种不同的胃肠道发病数据似乎在短期变化中是独立的,我们怀疑它们代表了不同类型的胃肠道疾病。通常不建议有病毒样胃肠道症状的人去医疗中心,为什么护士咨询电话可能比访问更好的结果。

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