首页> 外文会议>International conference on ocean, offshore and arctic engineering;OMAE2011 >CONDITIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT CONSIDERING HULL GIRDER FAILURE OF VESSELS WITH COLLISION-INDUCED DAMAGE AMIDSHIPS
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CONDITIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT CONSIDERING HULL GIRDER FAILURE OF VESSELS WITH COLLISION-INDUCED DAMAGE AMIDSHIPS

机译:考虑船体梁损坏并带有碰撞引起的损伤的条件性风险评估

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This paper deals with conditional risk assessment considering hull girder failure of damaged vessels. Only damages amidships are investigated. Conditional risk in this paper is defined as the probability of a given damage multiplied by the probability of hull girder failure conditioned upon the given damage. Taking a double hull oil tanker at full load condition as an example, the 3-hour's failure probabilities conditioned upon damage properties are estimated. The statistical database for collision event in the HARDER project is adopted to assess the probability of sea state and damage. The sensitivity of 3-hour's failure probability to the sea state and damage properties is investigated. Furthermore, the conditional risk is also assessed.
机译:本文讨论了考虑到受损船只的船体大梁失效的条件风险评估。仅调查船中的损坏情况。本文中的条件风险定义为给定损害的概率乘以以给定损害为条件的船体大梁破坏的概率。以满载条件下的双壳油轮为例,估计了以损坏特性为条件的3个小时的失效概率。采用HARDER项目中的碰撞事件统计数据库来评估海况和破坏的可能性。研究了3个小时失效概率对海况和破坏特性的敏感性。此外,还评估了条件风险。

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