An Analysis of Hog Production Prediction in Liaoning Province

摘要

The hog production has been an integral part in agriculture and livestock production and has been the main source of income of the household besides farming. At the same time, pork is one of our main meats, accounting for more than 50% of total meat consumption. Therefore, hog production and pork supply has been the concern for the government, people and the producers. Take Liaoning province as an example, this paper described the characteristics of hog production from 1978 to 2007. What'' more, based on the structural equation model and the VAR model, it predicted hog production in Liaoning province in 2008 and 2009. The results showed that: structural equation predicted hog production reached respectively 1,991,600 tons and 2,343,400 tons in 2008 and 2009; VAR model predicted hog production reached respectively 2,212,100 tons and 2,294,300 tons in 2008 and 2009. Taking into account the prediction accuracy of RMSE, VAR model showed more accurate predictions.