Review of the Current Status of Tools and Techniques for Risk-Based and Probabilistic Planning in Power Systems

摘要

This paper is a summary of the key findings and recommendations of the recently completedwork of the CIGRE Working Group C4.601 on Power System Security Assessment. Theworking group (WG) recently disbanded after submitting the last of it deliverables, a reportreviewing the current status of probabilistic and risk-based tools and techniques for powersystem planning. The report was published in October 2010 [1]. The group consisted of 65experts from 18 countries around the world.Historically, both transmission and operational planning studies and criteria have been for themost part deterministic. In today’s markets of separated generation, transmission anddistribution entities most electric utilities still employ these traditional deterministicapproaches. As systems continue to become more complex, the number of scenarios anduncertainties associated with day-to-day operations and planning of the power system hassignificantly increased. The introduction of renewable generation sources such as wind andsolar photovoltaic generation, also introduce significant variability in generation output. Allthese uncertainties introduce a potentially overwhelming number of scenarios to be studied toassess each possible combination of outcomes. Probabilistic techniques hold some promise ofmaking these assessments more tangible.The WG document serves as an overview of the present status of risk-based and probabilistictechniques and identifies why such tools are needed, what tools and techniques presently existand the concerns and gaps associated with the current tools, and where we need to go withfurther research and development to help bring risk based tools and techniques to the forefrontof power system planning.