Review of the Current Status of Tools and Techniques for Risk-Based and Probabilistic Planning in Power Systems




This paper is a summary of the key findings and recommendations of the recently completedwork of the CIGRE Working Group C4.601 on Power System Security Assessment. Theworking group (WG) recently disbanded after submitting the last of it deliverables, a reportreviewing the current status of probabilistic and risk-based tools and techniques for powersystem planning. The report was published in October 2010 [1]. The group consisted of 65experts from 18 countries around the world.Historically, both transmission and operational planning studies and criteria have been for themost part deterministic. In today’s markets of separated generation, transmission anddistribution entities most electric utilities still employ these traditional deterministicapproaches. As systems continue to become more complex, the number of scenarios anduncertainties associated with day-to-day operations and planning of the power system hassignificantly increased. The introduction of renewable generation sources such as wind andsolar photovoltaic generation, also introduce significant variability in generation output. Allthese uncertainties introduce a potentially overwhelming number of scenarios to be studied toassess each possible combination of outcomes. Probabilistic techniques hold some promise ofmaking these assessments more tangible.The WG document serves as an overview of the present status of risk-based and probabilistictechniques and identifies why such tools are needed, what tools and techniques presently existand the concerns and gaps associated with the current tools, and where we need to go withfurther research and development to help bring risk based tools and techniques to the forefrontof power system planning.
机译:本文总结了最近完成的主要发现和建议 CIGRE电力系统安全评估C4.601工作组的工作。这 工作组(WG)在提交了最后一份可交付成果后解散,一份报告 审查概率和基于风险的电力工具和技术的现状 系统规划。该报告于2010年10月发表[1]。该小组由65人组成 来自全球18个国家的专家。 从历史上看,传输和运营计划研究以及标准都是针对 大部分是确定性的。在当今的发电,输电和电力分离市场中 大多数电力公司的配电实体仍采用这些传统的确定性方法 方法。随着系统的不断复杂化,方案的数量和 与日常运行和电力系统规划相关的不确定性 显着提高。引入可再生能源,例如风能和 太阳能光伏发电也给发电量带来了很大的变化。全部 这些不确定性带来了可能需要研究的大量场景 评估结果的每种可能组合。概率技术对 使这些评估更加切实。 工作组文件概述了基于风险和概率的现状 技术并确定为什么需要这种工具,目前存在哪些工具和技术 以及与当前工具相关的关注点和差距,以及我们需要使用的地方 进一步的研究和开发,以帮助将基于风险的工具和技术带到最前沿 电力系统规划。



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