Why Chinese Airlines Haven’t Become Leading Cargo Carriers -Analyzing air freight network and international trade drivers for mainland China

摘要

In contrast to the tremendous growth in the passenger sector;;Chinese airlines and logistics operators still play minor roles in the world’s air cargo market. This study investigates the air freight network within mainland China using complex network analysis;;and identifies the key drivers for international trade delivered by air with an augmented gravity model. Our network analysis suggests that domestic air freights flow through a relatively small point-to-point network. Demands are concentrated to the catchments of metropolitan regions;;yet passenger hubs have not served as cargo gateways. In addition;;international air cargo flow is more balanced than China’s overall merchandise trade. Therefore foreign carriers can cherry-pick the most lucrative markets and link them to their global networks. Gravity model estimation suggests that for China’s international trade by air;;the composition of economy is a more important driver than the size of economy. Therefore;;air-freight demand in China was not as high as past GDP numbers suggested;;but is likely to outpace overall economic growth in the years to come. This should help Chinese airlines’ cargo ambitions in the long term.