Fuzzy set-based model to compute the life expectancy of HIV infected populations

摘要

In this paper we study the influence of AIDS Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome - in the life expectancy of a population considering a classical population model completed with expert knowledge information via a fuzzy rule-based system. Medical experts recognize that the most important variables to characterize HIV infection are viral load and CD4+ level. In the model considered, we assume that AIDS has a direct influence in the mortality rate of a population and derive a fuzzy rule base system to capture this influence using viral load, CD4+ and a parameter that modify the transference rate, as variables. We determine the average number of individuals and the life expectancy for specific population groups with no anti-retroviral therapy. The values found are coherent with actual data reported by UN.