Research on the Selection between Absolute and Intensity-Based Limits of CO_2 Emissions

摘要

This paper introduced the background of limiting GHG emissions, presented a new issue: which is better between relative target and absolute target for achieving emission reduction target while taking account of national economic growth. First, establishing the model of relationship between absolute and Intensity-Based Limits under certainty, found that it is equivalent between choosing the absolute cap and intensity target if the economic growth is certain. Second, analysis according to the historical data, found that there is the similar trends of the curves of Carbon emissions and economic growth. The results of granger causality test shows that within the 98% confidence intervals, economic growth is granger cause of emissions when the duration of lag is 2, 3. That is economic growth would stimulate emissions. So we must reduce emissions through using new technology, not only limit the economic development. Third, the countries with the high absolute emissions may have relatively low intensities and vice versa. But the data is high of absolute and intensity target in China shows that economic development is relying on energy consumption and increasing emissions.