Research On The Long Term Growth Potential And Economic Cycle In Chinese Economy

摘要

Based on analysis of China and abroad environments in the future years, economic growth potential and actual growth rate in "Tenth five-year plan" and 2006-2015 were calculated and the tendency was predicted using the production function model, econometric model and season cycle model, and analysis of three industry harmonized structure development and economic growth brought by three demands. The result showed that the potential GDP growth rate will reach 9% and the actual GDP growth rate will be 7.5% during 'Tenth five-year plan"; the potential GDP growth rate will be 8.5% and the actual GDP growth rate will realize 7% during 2006-2015. 7% or above of modest growth rate can be realized during 2001-2015 no matter how from the supply-demand factor or the contribution of the technology progress to economic growth.