A NEW ANALYSIS METHOD FOR EXTREME WAVE STATISTICS BY POISSON-GPD MODEL

摘要

This paper describes a new mothod for a frequency analysis of extreme wave heights, byrnemploying the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) assuming Poisson process of eventrnoccurence. A principal advantage of using GPD is the connectivity to the asymptotic extremernvalue distribution, whose shape parameter’s value is identical to that of GPD. Therninference method is based on the maximum likelihood for estimation of return wave heightsrnand a Goda’s spread parameter, and the confidence intervals are due to the delta method. Arnwave data set hindcasting off Kodiak is applied as an example. The present analysis showsrnthat extreme value of the sample follows the FT-III distribution, which is not employed as arncandidate distribution in the previous studies.