A Recipe for Estimation and Detection of Climate Changes

摘要

This article concisely describes the philosophy, mathematics and algorithms for estimation and detection of climate changes. The estimation method of Shen et al. (1994), the detection method of North and Wu (2001), and the multivariate statistical techniques described in Johnson and Wichern (1992) are followed. The contents include the optimal averaging method that minimizes the uncertainties of the global change estimate, the least square detection of both single and multiple signals, numerical examples, and limitations of the linear optimal averaging and detection methods.