The Annual Runoff Forecasting Research Based on the Theory of Cointegration and Error Correction Model

摘要

An annual runoff forecasting method is presented based on unit root test, cointegration test and error correction model of the upper and lower reaches of the Second Songhua River. The method of cointegration analysis is applied to the annual runoff data of the Baishan and Fengman hydrology Stations; then the error correction model is set up, which can predict the annual runoff of Fengman hydrology Station from 1989 to 1998. The results show that the model based on cointegration analysis and error correction is suitable in runoff forecasting.