A Calendar Life Assessment of Airborne Products Considering Epistemic and Aleatory Uncertainty

摘要

Aiming at providing more accurate information for the first restoration, overhaul and maintenance of airborne products, this paper gives a calendar life assessment method for airborne products considering epistemic and aleatory uncertainty on the basis of investigation and analysis for the factors which affect the uncertainty of calendar life assessment. The uncertainty of calendar life is modeled as two types: epistemic uncertainty and aleatory uncertainty. a aleatory uncertainty model of calendar life based on interval analysis and blind number theory is given with parameter sensitivity analysis. Considering the designer's problem of incomplete cognition of failure mechanism, a measurement method of epistemic uncertainty is given based on the concept of confidence reliability.