Application of Probabilistic Methodsto Manage Risks on a Commercial Satellite Program

摘要

This paper discusses the results of an independent risk analysis, including the application ofa proprietary approach, Risk Integrated with Schedule and Cost – Intelligent Quantification (RISC-IQ),performed on a supposedly 'healthy' commercial satellite development program to uncoverunidentified cost and schedule risks. Despite the program having a robust risk management effortstaffed by experienced personnel, this assessment found approximately $62 million and seven monthsof unmitigated risk exposure. The methodology used in this assessment, in combination with a set ofstatistical tools, was able to demonstrate that the underestimation of the amount of risk exposurestemmed from (1) inaccuracies in the estimates at completion, (2) the program team's underestimationof risk severity, and (3) overemphasis on technical aspects of the program.