Results From A Pilot Benchmarking Study Of HRA Methods – AComparison of Method Predictions Against the Outcomes Observed in TheSimulator Study

摘要

The International HRA Empirical Study is an assessment of a diverse set of HumanReliability Analysis (HRA) methods against empirical data obtained in simulator studies. In thisassessment, the outcomes predicted in the HRA analyses are compared against the observedperformances of licensed operator crews in simulated accident scenarios. This paper presents theresults of this comparison, obtained in an initial pilot study. It discusses the types of outcomes used inthe comparison, consisting of the factors driving performance, I.e. important performance shapingfactors, and their specific expression in the reference scenarios. The main observed outcomes for thesescenarios are presented. Selected comparison results are presented and discussed in terms of theoverall trends. The pilot study results are based on the performance of the methods for two HumanFailure Events in the context of a base and more complex variant of a single scenario. Consequently,these results need to be confirmed or extended by considering additional scenarios. In spite of theselimitations, the study has produced valuable, tangible insights concerning the HRA methods.