Risk analysis of an hydrogen refueling station: uncertainty in consequencemodeling

摘要

Some European Benchmarking Exercises demonstrated that different groups of analysts,facing the risk analysis of the same plant, obtain results very different from each others by orders ofmagnitude in the risk value. These studies highlighted that the phases which mainly contribute to theoverall uncertainty are the consequence assessment and the vulnerability analysis.The principal aim of paper is warning against difficulties on uncertainty evaluation in the consequenceand vulnerability analysis, especially in hydrogen risk analysis, and it highlights the importance ofexperimental data about hydrogen dispersion and explosion phenomena. In this paper the workingteam analyzed the problem and demonstrated how two software, Effects and Phast, that implementdifferent parametric models, can lead to contradictory results because of their uncertainties. In thispaper the comparison of the software is based on a risk analysis of an hydrogen refueling station andsome important results are obtained, for example about explosion phenomenon; in fact the twosoftware are not agree about occurring of this event.To better deepen the uncertainty on consequence analysis, the research team is working abouthydrogen release and dispersion experimental and about developing of a Lagrangian particle model tosimulate hydrogen atmospheric dispersion.