Index System for Speculative Real Estate Bubble Early-warning: An Empirical Analysis

摘要

Malignant speculative real estate bubble has been the biggest potential threat for the healthy development of real estate industry in all countries as well as the normal running of the whole national economy. Therefore, it is significant to construct a earlywarning system in allusion to the speculation degree in real estate transaction to monitor and control the speculative real estate bubble. This thesis constructs an index system to measure the speculation degree in real estate transaction on the basis of defining the notion of speculative real estate bubble and composes a theoretic framework for speculative real estate bubble early-warning system combining with efficiency coefficient method and applies it in analysing the speculative real estate bubble earlywarning in our country.