The Probe on 'The Bid Evaluating Method in Accordance with Risk Appraising for Project that Using Lowest Price Proposal Selected' Based on Monte Carlo Simulation:Practice and Probe in Xiamen, China

摘要

From the year 2003, Xiamen government began to use method of Lowest Price Proposal Selected. In practice, when using method of Lowest Price Proposal Selected to appraise a bid, commercial bid and technical bid is emphasized, however, the degree of risk of the project is not been appraised. There is special huge risk in these projects, and there are some loses in these projects in practice. To avoid risk and decrease loss effectively, here, the paper suggest a method of appraising bid——'The bid evaluating method in accordance with risk appraising'. At first, the owner determines the risk appraising factor. Second, the bid appraising committee calculate the risk appraising factor of the bid using Monte Carlo simulation, at last, committee of bid evaluating would decide the place of all bids comprehensive considering commercial bid, technical bid, and factor of risk appraising of the bid.