TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING: A SOFT SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVE

摘要

The art and science of technological forecasting is the greatest weakness of strategy making. In dynamic and complex environments it is extremely difficult and perhaps even impossible. This is because the future tends to emerge from these situations in ways that defy conventional forecasting techniques. In fact systemic emergence is often considered impossible to model in this way. Most of these techniques are linear, deterministic and inflexible in nature, which is why they are often described as being hard. A soft perspective is required in order to understand the subtle complexities involved and to show how existing models them selves can change with time. This paper looks at the common forecasting techniques used, the problems encountered and how the application of Soft Systems Engineering can make a difference.