Monte-Carlo Simulation Approach for SystemReadiness Level Estimation

摘要

A system-focused prescriptive metric, called System Readiness Level (SRL),rnwhich incorporates both the current Technology Readiness Level (TRL) scale and thernconcept of an Integration Readiness Level (IRL) has recently been established to measurerncurrent and future readiness status of a system under development. In previous research,rndeterministic values for components’ TRLs and IRLs estimation were assumed, whichrninvolves much human subjectivity. Moreover, only point estimation from calculation wasrnproposed in previous research. In order to reduce the subjective influence, we propose arnprobabilistic method here to combine all evaluators’ estimation towards a system’srncomponents and integration points. Based on the probabilistic form of TRLs and IRLs, arnMonte-Carlo simulation methodology is followed herein to assess the maturity status (SRL)rnof a system. An illustrative example is examined to show how to employ the proposedrnmethodology. The paper concludes with the discussion of the gained value of the newrnmethodology as well as its limitation.