Schedule risk management at early stages of large construction projects based on the GERT model

摘要

The schedule risk increases as the construction projects are becoming larger and more complex. Therefore, it's very important to take control of the schedule risk. But most of the research about the schedule risk control concentrated on the implementation stage of a project, the schedule risk at the early stages of a project is often overlooked. In order to explore this issue, we analyze the schedule risk at the early stages and establish a GERT network model using the random network technology. In conclusion, we calculate the model to quantify the schedule risk at the early stages and provide some risk control proposals for the decision-making according to the model.