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Improving Forecasting with Soft Systems Methodology

机译:使用软系统方法改进预测

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摘要

The engineering of tomorrow's world today can only happen if we have somernidea of what tomorrow’s world is going to be like. This leads us into the murky world ofrnforecasting and strategy making, which are highly dangerous and difficult activities for mostrnorganisations. Of course if you have perfect knowledge about the future, then strategy making isrnrelatively easy, as there are literally hundreds of effective decision making and optimisationrnmethodologies available for this purpose. Sadly, finding reliable, accurate and concisernknowledge about the future is anything but easy. This is the central problem of strategy making.rnStrangely enough, it is possible to accumulate relatively large amounts of raw data andrninformation about the future, unfortunately processing and condensing this into usefulrnknowledge is remarkably difficult. Information about the future can be hard (logical,rndeterministic and syntactic), but is mostly soft (vague, complex and semantic). Forecasters oftenrnignore the latter because it is impossible to process normatively, however the appropriate use ofrnCheckland’s Methodology (a soft methodology) can greatly improve this situation. In particular,rnthis paper shows how Checkland’s Methodology and the correlation matrix can be used together,rnin order to discover patterns of information about the future that are more consistent, reliable andrnmeaningful. This knowledge is critical for effective forecasting and strategy making.
机译:今天的明天世界的工程只有在我们对明天的世界会有所了解的情况下才能发生。这使我们进入了预测和制定策略的黑暗世界,对于大多数组织而言,这是非常危险和困难的活动。当然,如果您对未来有全面的了解,那么制定策略就相对容易了,因为实际上有数百种有效的决策和优化方法可用于此目的。可悲的是,要找到可靠,准确和简明的未来知识绝非易事。这是战略制定的中心问题。足够奇怪的是,有可能积累相对大量的原始数据和有关未来的信息,不幸的是,将其处理和浓缩为有用的知识非常困难。关于未来的信息可能很难(在逻辑,确定性和句法上),而在大多数方面却是软的(模糊,复杂和语义)。预报员通常会忽略后者,因为不可能进行规范的处理,但是正确使用rnCheckland的方法(一种软方法)可以大大改善这种情况。特别是,本文展示了如何将Checkland的方法论和相关矩阵一起使用,以发现关于未来的信息模式,这些模式更加一致,可靠和有意义。这些知识对于有效的预测和制定策略至关重要。

著录项

  • 来源
    《aEngineering tommorow's today!》|2003年|1-14|共14页
  • 会议地点 Arlington VA(US)
  • 作者

    Frank Stajnko; Louis Doukas;

  • 作者单位

    Royal Melbourne Institute of Technololgy (RMIT University), Melbourne, Australia.rnGPO Box 2476V, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, 3001.rnLdoukas@rmit.edu.au;

    Royal Melbourne Institute of Technololgy (RMIT University), Melbourne, Australia.rnGPO Box 2476V, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, 3001.rnLdoukas@rmit.edu.au;

  • 会议组织
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 系统工程;
  • 关键词

  • 入库时间 2022-08-26 14:03:57

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