A Systems Decision Modeling Approach to Electrical Generation Capacity Planning

摘要

This paper presents modeling techniques forrnplanning electrical generation capacity where demand isrnuncertain. We present traditional solutions to therncapacity generation problem using a deterministicrnprogramming model based on both simple and complexrndemand scenarios. We then present a systems approach,rnemploying a unique two-stage stochastic programmingrnmodel that employs random parameters, which operaternon deterministic model data, over the range of allrnpossible scenarios. This systems model enables thernexpected cost of uncertain demand information to berncalculated (ECII), and candidate stochastic solutionsrn(VSS) to the capacity generation problem to bernevaluated.